8.+We're+going+bananas!



The following is evidence of the thought process we have explored in our search of answers to the following questions 1. How many banana plants are there in the plantation closest to our settlement? This is the settlement at B4 and it covers a space of 9 hectares. 2. How long would it take for the aphids to reach and destroy our closest plantation? 3. How long would it take for the aphids to destroy all the banana plants on the Island 4. What would the economic ramifications of this be?

1. The plantation nearest to our settlement is located at B4 on the map and covers an area of nine hectares. If there are 2218 banana plants per hectare then 9 X 2218 = **19,962** banana plants at the plantation located at B4.

2. The other plantations have the following number of banana plants: C7, 12.4 X 2218 = **27,503** banana plants C8, 1.2 X 2218 = **2662** banana plants C5, 35.6 X 2218 = **78,961** banana plants B6, 48.6 X 2218 = **107,794** banana plants The port is located at B7. Thus as we range the Plantations, from closest to the port outwards they are in this order: B6 C7 C5 and C8 are about equidistant B4. When exploring how long it would take for the aphids reach, and finally to destroy our plantation at B4 we had to take into account a few considerations that may skew our data. Firstly, we have no data concerning how far the aphids can travel so it is unclear if they would be able to cover the distance between the plantations. If that is the case, the virus cannot move without the vector so the spread would be immediately contained. Secondly, we are be working under the assumption that the aphids will be consuming each plantation entirely before moving onto the next plantation. If we do not state this up front, our following numbers may make no sense! Here is our reasoning: We now have both the order in which the aphids will be consuming our plantations and how long it will take to consume each one: B6 is closest to the port and it will take approximately 150 days for the aphids to consume the 107,794 trees.C7 is next and it will take approximately 130 days for the aphids to consume the 27,503 trees.C5 is after that and it will take approximately 150 days for the aphids to consume the 78,961 trees.Finally B4, it will take the aphids approximately 130 days to consume all the trees at B4   You may notice that we have left out the plantation at C8 but we have not forgotten it! As that particular location does not lie between the port and our plantation we are hypothesising that the aphids will be destroying the plantation at C5 at the same time as they are destroying the one at C8. There are only 2662 trees and this would only take a mere 110 days to demolish, which falls within the 130 days it will take for them to destroy the much larger plantation at C5. (Again, this speaks to the spread of the aphids, can they consume two places at once? If so, we need a different method for solving our problem) Finally, if you add together the number of days it takes to decimate the plantations in the aforementioned order the result is: 150 + 130 +150 + 130 = __**560 days**__ for the aphids to spread from the port and sequentially decimate all the banana trees standing in the plantations. This gives the government 560 days to come up with a solution and SAVE OUR BANANAS! 3. Economic impacts! Potentially the economic impact is massive and we have calculated the potential loss if all trees on the island are wiped out. Assumptions There are 2218 trees per hectare. Each tree yeilds 1 bunch of bananas weighing 40kg per year.

Port 55450 trees B4 19962 trees C7 27503 trees C5 78961 trees C8 2662 trees B6 107794 trees

Total 292332 trees 292332 x 40kg is 11,693,280 kgs of bananas There are 1000 kg per tonne so we need to divide 11,693,280 by 1000 to arrive at the number of tonnes of bananas. There are 11,693.28 tonnes of bananas at $994 per tonne. Rounding to the nearest tonne we have 11,693 at $994. Potential losses for one year based on total wipe out $11,622,842.00.

Of course we are confident the following actions will assist to avert this disaster.

In order to stop the spread of the virus it is important to undrstand how it is spread. Pillay& Tenkouano (2011) advise that the virus is spread by aphids and the use of infected planting material.
 * BANANA BUNCHY TOP VIRUS (BBTV) HOW CAN WE STOP THE SPREAD ON THE ISLAND?**

We have established using our mathematical calulations that unchecked the virus will potentially wipe out all banana plantations on the Island in 560 days. However we have agreed that action needs to be taken immediatley to prevent the spread and minimise any economic impacts.

Given the rapid rate of infestation early detection is vital. The College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources (CTHAR) advises that disease identification can occur in two ways: by symptom identification including dark green streaks on leaves, bunchy leaves and stunted fruit or through laboratory testing for the virus using banana leaves. References: Pillay,M., & Tenkouano, A. (2011).//Banana Breeding Progress and Challenges ,//Florida, USA:CRC Press.

College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources University of Hawaii at Manoa,(1997) //Plant Disease// ,(PD 12)retrieved from []

OUR RECOMMENDATIONS

A task force of inspectors specifically trained to detect the virus will be established and funded by the government. We recommend the inspectors be dispatched as per the table below. The number of inspectors required is based on the number of banana trees located at each plantation.
 * PLANTATION LOCATION || NUMBER OF INSPECTORS ||
 * PORT || 6 * ||
 * C8 || 1 ||
 * C7 || 4 ||
 * C5 || 12 ||
 * B6 || 18 ||
 * B4 || 3 ||
 * The number of inspectors allocated to the port plantation is disproportionate to the number of trees located at this site. However these inspectors will have a dual role also conducting quarantine inspections of all incoming ships to ensure all banana products are prohibited entry to the Island.

The BBTV task force inspectors will have the power to enter any banana plantation at anytime without warning and collect any samples they deem necessary. The cost of testing will be borne by the Government in the National interest. Inspectors will also conduct staff training for all planation workers focussing on early detection of the virus. Residents can access their local task force inspectors for clarification of any issues or to report aphid sightings or diseased banana trees outside plantation settings.

A public awareness and action campaign to make all Island inhabitants aware of the risk to the economy and their role in preventing the spread of the disease. The campaign will be launched by the President and each settlement representative will appoint a sub committee to oversee the implementation of the campaign within their settlement. Schools will conduct an awareness campaign appropriate to the age of students so the whole community is involved.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO ADVISE RESIDENTS OF AND HOW WILL THIS BE ACHIEVED?

We believe we need to make the message simple and clear to residents in order to be effective. Their role in not transporting bananas or banana products is vital to prevent the spread of the disease and subsequent economic impact. The message is simple:

"__STOP BANANA VIRUS SPREAD DON'T GIVE BANANA TREES OR PRODUCTS LEGS"__ __OUR FUTURE PROSPERITY DEPENDS ON YOU__ This message will be reinforced through:
 * newspaper advertisments
 * television advertisements
 * sms phone reminders to residents
 * painted on the side of the monorail servicing all settlements to remind people not to transport banana products between settlements
 * large red wheelie bins will be placed at all monorail stations to allow for safe disposal
 * brochures ditributed to schools and workplaces
 * government to issue letters to all homes
 * fines will apply to residents who breach guidelines

Fines would be issued as a last resort. We want the whole community to get behind the campaign. We believe if people are aware of the economic impact to the island economy then they will act to prevent the spread in their own best interests.

CONTAINING THE SPREAD OF BBTV WHILST MINIMISING IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT Whilst we are hopeful that the measures instigated above will have a significant impact on the spread of BBTV and save our banana plantations. The question remains of how we will deal with confirmed outbreaks. Should we use pesticides or should we take a natural approach? Given our initial mission guidelines to not repeat the mistakes of the past we have agreed to take a natural approach. PAN Germany is a charitable organization which is part of the Pesticide Action Network Interantional. Pan Germany funds an online information service for non chemical pest control in the tropics commonly known as OISAT. Perusal of the website for information regarding the control of BBTV revealed two recommendations we have agreed to adopt. 1. Aphids be controlled using soapy water or insecticidal soap. 2. Destroying infected plants and disposing of them chopping, drying and burying.

Reference: Pan Germany(2011) On line Information Service for Non Chemical Pest Control in the Tropics//, Banana Bunchy Top Virus//. Retrieved from []


 * 'STOP BANANA VIRUS SPREAD  DONT GIVE BANANA TREES OR PRODUCTS LEGS"  ﻿  ||

BANANA IMAGE FROM: []